Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Totesport Ebor Betting Preview

While no three-year-old has made the cut this year, thus robbing the race of its best horse in Harris Tweed (arguably), 20 top handicappers still line up and an exciting contest is assured. And one horse I'm particularly looking forward to seeing strut his stuff on the Knavesmire is the seven-year-old Overturn (13/2 Betfred), who is proving to be a revelation in 2010. Since getting his head in front for the first time over hurdles at Ayr in early March, he's won a further four times, including big-race victories in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, Northumberland Plate and last time out in the Guineas Galway Hurdle.
This represents his toughest task to date and older horses like him have a poor record in the Ebor, but he could be something special and, while his jumps rating has gone up 59lb, he remains well-weighted in this sphere off a mark just 6lb higher than what he carried to victory at Newcastle. He's going to have to do it the hard way from the front - such is his style of racing - and that won't be easy in the most competitive staying handicap of the season, but he's not short of pace and can quicken off the front as well, in which case he's going to be tough to pass.
The other well-handicapped horse in the race is Martyr (13/2 Totesport), who has won since the publication of the weights and is 6lb well-in here compared to future races. The Goodwood race he won last time has produced recent Ebor winners Mephisto and Sergeant Cecil so he's an obvious contender, although his turf wins have come on good to firm ground (currently good). Elyaadi (11/1 Betfred) has won with cut but he too prefers faster ground as he showed when chasing home Junior in the Ascot Stakes last time. off a 2lb lower mark.
Fortuni (8/1 general) won a decent handicap at Epsom back in June from Cill Rialaig, who franked the form when going one better in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot two weeks later. An 11lb rise makes life tougher, though. Hillview Boy (11/1 William Hill) has been strongly supported in recent days and it's easy to see why as he has good form on soft ground and ran a cracker when fourth to Wigmore Hall (getting 11lb) in the John Smith's Cup last time out. However, he's now on a career-high mark of 99 and carries the same weight as Overturn, who looks more progressive.

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